Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
