A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
